We miss 84% of our NBA first basket picks.We still made +$11,868 at $100 a pick.
First basket is a long-odds market: our picks average +741, so the model only needs to hit 11.9% to break even. It hits 15.9%. That gap is the whole edge, and every pick behind it is graded in public below.
NBA model live · picks tonight · WNBA model live · picks tomorrow · both included in Pro
Why a 15.9% hit rate makes money
At $100 a pick, a miss costs $100 ($150 on Elite picks). A hit at our average price pays about $741 (7.4 units). So the math only asks one question: do we hit more often than the price implies?
Long-odds betting is streaky by nature - our longest run without a hit is 23 picks, and the deepest drawdown so far is 30.4 units (-$3,037 at $100 a pick). Both are on the chart above, not edited out. The record still stands at +$11,868 at $100 a pick (+118.7u).
Season by season, tier by tier
Flat stakes: $100 per pick, $150 on Elite (1 and 1.5 units), at the best price across the sportsbooks we track when each pick is published. ROI is profit divided by the amount actually staked; per pick is profit divided by the number of picks.
| Season | Picks | Hit % | Avg odds | Staked | Profit | At $100/pick | Per pick | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBA 2025-26live 144 game days · 1.9 picks/day | 271 | 15.9% | +741 | 323u | +118.7u | +$11,868 | +0.44u | +36.7% |
All live picks since Oct 21 2025 | 271 | 15.9% | +741 | 323u | +118.7u | +$11,868 | +0.44u | +36.7% |
2 NBA games · 0 model picks
No qualifying picks yet · first tip 7:00 PM ET. Names, odds and the reasoning behind each pick are inside the Pro dashboard.
First baskets twelve months a year
When one league is out of season the other is live. Both models are included in Pro.
- This season
- +$11,868 from 271 picks (+118.7u)
- Volume
- ~1.9 picks per game day
- Since launch
- +$11,868 · +36.7% ROI · 271 picks
- This season
- +$9,088 from 243 picks (+90.9u)
- Volume
- ~2.4 picks per game day
- Since launch
- +$20,779 · +35.2% ROI · 451 picks
The first basket models are one part of it
Pro is the whole platform, not a picks subscription:
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Tip-off, first shot, checklist, price
Plain-language version. The full breakdown for every pick lives in the dashboard.
Every jumper carries a rating built from their tip-off history, so each game starts with a real probability of which team gets the ball first.
Starters are ranked on how often they take - and make - their team’s opening shot, at home and away, with recent form weighed in.
Volume, tip edge, first-shot habit, hot streak, first-basket rate and price. Clear more checks and the pick is labelled Elite; fewer, Strong; not enough, no pick.
A pick is published only when the best available odds beat the model’s number. No edge at the window, no pick - that discipline is what the record measures.
All 271 live picks, misses included
Stored when published, graded against the official play-by-play, never edited afterwards.
| Date | Player | Team | Tier | Odds | Stake | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21 2026 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | strong | +650 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| May 19 2026 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | strong | +600 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| May 9 2026 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | strong | +625 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| May 7 2026 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | strong | +625 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| May 5 2026 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | strong | +700 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| May 2 2026 | Jaylen Brown | BOS | elite | +650 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| May 1 2026 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | strong | +800 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 29 2026 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | strong | +1000 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 28 2026 | Joel Embiid | PHI | strong | +600 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 27 2026 | Chet Holmgren | OKC | strong | +650 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 26 2026 | Joel Embiid | PHI | elite | +600 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Apr 26 2026 | Deandre Ayton | LAL | strong | +750 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 26 2026 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | strong | +700 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 25 2026 | Chet Holmgren | OKC | strong | +652 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 25 2026 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | strong | +950 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 24 2026 | Deandre Ayton | LAL | strong | +750 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 24 2026 | Scoot Henderson | POR | elite | +850 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Apr 23 2026 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | strong | +650 | 1u | HIT | +6.50u |
| Apr 22 2026 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | strong | +850 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 19 2026 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | strong | +900 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 17 2026 | Kristaps Porzingis | GSW | elite | +625 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Apr 17 2026 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | strong | +950 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 15 2026 | Kristaps Porzingis | GSW | elite | +575 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Apr 15 2026 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | strong | +750 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Apr 12 2026 | Kristaps Porzingis | GSW | elite | +575 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
First basket betting, answered
A first basket (or first scorer) bet is a wager on which player scores the first points of the game. Because ten starters can plausibly score first, sportsbooks price every player at long odds - typically +500 to +1200. That is what makes the market attractive: it settles within the first minute or two of the game, the payouts are large, and one hit can cover many misses.
271 picks this season. The next one is tonight.
Get every WNBA and NBA first basket pick, plus props across every league we cover, from $26.24 a month.
Results shown are the model's live, graded picks at a flat stake per pick ($100 on this page, 1.5x on Elite picks; the units figures are the same record at 1 unit per pick) using the best available odds across the sportsbooks we track, recorded when each pick was published. Dollar figures are what a bettor following every pick at that stake would have made, before book limits or missed prices. Taking picks at a single book would earn less. Past performance does not guarantee future results. First basket betting is high-variance. StatsBench provides research, not betting advice - please gamble responsibly.