We miss 84% of our first basket picks.We're still up +213 units.
First basket is a long-odds market: our picks average +760, so the model only needs to hit 11.6% to break even. It hits 16.4%. That gap is the whole edge, and every pick behind it is graded in public below.
WNBA model live · back Sep 17 · NBA model returns October 2026 · both included in Pro
Why a 16.4% hit rate makes money
A miss costs one unit (1.5 on Elite picks). A hit at our average price pays about 7.6 units. So the math only asks one question: do we hit more often than the price implies?
Long-odds betting is streaky by nature - our longest run without a hit is 21 picks, and the deepest drawdown so far is 35.5 units. Both are on the chart above, not edited out. The record still stands at +212.6u.
Season by season, tier by tier
Flat stakes: 1 unit per pick, 1.5 units on Elite, at the best price across the sportsbooks we track when each pick is published. ROI is profit divided by units actually staked; per pick is profit divided by the number of picks.
| Season | Picks | Hit % | Avg odds | Staked | Profit | Per pick | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WNBA 2026live 83 game days · 2.3 picks/day | 194 | 16.5% | +771 | 248.5u | +95.7u | +0.49u | +38.5% |
WNBA 2025 98 game days · 2.1 picks/day | 208 | 16.3% | +750 | 275u | +116.9u | +0.56u | +42.5% |
All live picks since May 18 2025 | 402 | 16.4% | +760 | 523.5u | +212.6u | +0.53u | +40.6% |
5 WNBA games · 3 model picks
2 Elite and 1 Strong on the Sep 17 board · first tip 7:30 PM ET. The board is rebuilt right up to tip-off as lineups and prices move. Names, odds and the reasoning behind each pick are inside the Pro dashboard.
First baskets twelve months a year
When one league is out of season the other is live. Both models are included in Pro.
- This season
- +95.7u from 194 picks
- Volume
- ~2.3 picks per game day
- Since launch
- +212.6u · +40.6% ROI
- 2025-26 season
- +62.9u from 599 bets
- ROI
- 10%+
- Volume
- more games, more picks per night
The first basket models are one part of it
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Tip-off, first shot, checklist, price
Plain-language version. The full breakdown for every pick lives in the dashboard.
Every jumper carries a rating built from their tip-off history, so each game starts with a real probability of which team gets the ball first.
Starters are ranked on how often they take - and make - their team’s opening shot, at home and away, with recent form weighed in.
Volume, tip edge, first-shot habit, hot streak, first-basket rate and price. Clear more checks and the pick is labelled Elite; fewer, Strong; not enough, no pick.
A pick is published only when the best available odds beat the model’s number. No edge at the window, no pick - that discipline is what the record measures.
All 402 live picks, misses included
Stored when published, graded against the official play-by-play, never edited afterwards.
| Date | Player | Team | Tier | Odds | Stake | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30 2026 | Natasha Howard | MIN | elite | +770 | 1.5u | HIT | +11.55u |
| Aug 30 2026 | Awak Kuier | DAL | elite | +869 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 30 2026 | Jade Melbourne | SEA | elite | +850 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 29 2026 | Kahleah Copper | PHX | strong | +600 | 1u | HIT | +6.00u |
| Aug 29 2026 | Laura Juskaite | TOR | elite | +650 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 28 2026 | Nneka Ogwumike | LA | strong | +550 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 28 2026 | Laura Juskaite | TOR | elite | +700 | 1.5u | HIT | +10.50u |
| Aug 28 2026 | Makayla Timpson | IND | elite | +800 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 27 2026 | Cecilia Zandalasini | GS | elite | +525 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 27 2026 | Kahleah Copper | PHX | strong | +650 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 26 2026 | Isabelle Harrison | TOR | strong | +650 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 26 2026 | Temi Fagbenle | TOR | elite | +700 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 26 2026 | Cecilia Zandalasini | GS | elite | +491 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 25 2026 | Kahleah Copper | PHX | strong | +700 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 25 2026 | Awak Kuier | DAL | elite | +900 | 1.5u | HIT | +13.50u |
| Aug 25 2026 | Kennedy Burke | CON | strong | +674 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 24 2026 | Nneka Ogwumike | LA | strong | +620 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 24 2026 | Natasha Howard | MIN | strong | +680 | 1u | HIT | +6.80u |
| Aug 24 2026 | Cecilia Zandalasini | GS | elite | +500 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 23 2026 | Makayla Timpson | IND | strong | +900 | 1u | HIT | +9.00u |
| Aug 23 2026 | Laura Juskaite | TOR | strong | +700 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 23 2026 | Isabelle Harrison | TOR | strong | +600 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 23 2026 | Jade Melbourne | SEA | elite | +951 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
| Aug 22 2026 | Nneka Ogwumike | LA | strong | +625 | 1u | MISS | -1.00u |
| Aug 22 2026 | Rhyne Howard | ATL | elite | +500 | 1.5u | MISS | -1.50u |
First basket betting, answered
A first basket (or first scorer) bet is a wager on which player scores the first points of the game. Because ten starters can plausibly score first, sportsbooks price every player at long odds - typically +500 to +1200. That is what makes the market attractive: it settles within the first minute or two of the game, the payouts are large, and one hit can cover many misses.
194 picks this season. The next slate is Sep 17.
Get every WNBA and NBA first basket pick, plus props across every league we cover, from $11.24 a week.
Results shown are the model's live, graded picks at flat stakes using the best available odds across the sportsbooks we track, recorded when each pick was published. Taking picks at a single book would earn less. Past performance does not guarantee future results. First basket betting is high-variance. StatsBench provides research, not betting advice - please gamble responsibly.