EV (Expected Value) Calculator

EV is the average profit or loss per bet if you placed it infinite times. EV = (probability × profit) − ((1 − probability) × stake). Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term; negative EV (−EV) means you'll lose over time.

Use sharp sportsbook lines (like Pinnacle) as a starting point — devig their odds to get fair probabilities. You can also build your own models using historical data, or adjust the market price based on information the books haven't priced in yet.

Anything above +2% EV is generally worth betting. Professional bettors often target +3–5% edges. Even +1% can be profitable at high volume. The key is consistency — hundreds of +EV bets will converge toward the expected value over time.