Learn to Win NBA Over/Under Bets in 2025–26
When the moneyline or spread feels too tight, Over/Unders (totals) are a great way to attack a slate. This guide explains how totals are priced, the different ways to bet them, and smart tactics to find value.
Single-Game Score Totals
You’re betting whether the combined points scored by both teams will finish Over or Under the number posted by the sportsbook.
Example: Grizzlies at Warriors — Total 228.5
- Bet Over if you think the game lands 229+.
- Bet Under if you expect 228 or fewer.
- Final 118–114 (232) → Over wins
- Final 110–109 (219) → Under wins
Winner/loser doesn’t matter—only the total points.
Season Win Totals (Team Futures)
Before the season tips, books post team win totals. You pick Over or Under a number that reflects roster strength, schedule, and market sentiment.
Team:
- Denver Nuggets Over 56,5 (+120) / Under 56,5 (-150)
- Milwaukee Bucks Over 55,5 (-110) / Under 55,5 (-120)
- Golden State Warriors Over 48,5 (-110) / Under 48,5 (-120)
- Los Angeles Lakers Over 54,5 (+140) / Under 54,5 (-170)
- Charolete Hornets Over 38,5 (-110) / Under 38,5 (-120)
Books use .5 to avoid pushes (no half wins, no half points in game totals).
What Is the Vig/Juice?
The vig (or juice) is the house commission embedded in the price.
- If Bucks Over 55.5 is -110, you risk $110 to profit $100 (book’s $10 edge).
- Heavy action on one side may prompt the book to move the price (e.g., to -120) or move the number (e.g., 55.5 → 56.5).
s & Strategies for NBA Totals
1) Track Pace & Style
Possessions per game drive totals. Slow, half-court teams tilt Under; run-and-gun units add variance to the Over. Check recent pace, not just season averages.
2) Know the Referees
Whistles change games. Tight crews add free throws and stoppages (Over lean); let-it-play crews keep flow (Under lean). Use ref tendencies as a tiebreaker.
3) Monitor Injuries & Lineups
One star can swing a number. Late scratches, minutes limits, and rest days matter. Re-check news 60–30 minutes before tip.
4) Offense vs. Defense (and Shot Quality)
Two top-10 defenses? Likely Under unless pace spikes. Elite shooting + weak rim protection? Over becomes viable. Also review recent head-to-heads and form (hot/cold from three).
5) Shop for the Best Number
Totals often differ by 1–3 points across books. 219.5 vs 221.5 is massive over a season. Multiple accounts = better prices and promos.
6) Timing the Market
- Early lines are softer; they sharpen closer to tip as information lands.
- If you like Over with possible positive injury news, consider betting early.
- If you like Under and expect public Over money, wait for a higher number.
7) Overtime Rules
Most books include OT for game totals (great for Over bettors). Always confirm house rules.
NBA Over/Under FAQs
What is an Over/Under in basketball?
A wager on whether the combined points exceed (Over) or fall below (Under) the number set by sportsbooks.
Do games usually go Over or Under?
Markets tend to shade toward the Over due to public bias; sharp bettors often find more value on the Under—but it’s slate dependent.
Do totals include overtime?
Typically yes. Overtime points count toward the total.
How do I calculate total points?
Add home + away final scores.
Where can I bet totals?
Nearly every sportsbook offers them. They’re among the most popular NBA markets.
Bottom line: Great totals betting blends pace, ref tendencies, injury news, and number discipline. Get the best line, and don’t be afraid to pass when the price isn’t there.
