How to Win NBA Moneyline Bets in 2025–26

If point spreads feel intimidating, start with moneylines. An NBA moneyline (ML) is the simplest bet in basketball: pick the team that wins the game, outright.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

Moneyline odds tell you how much you risk (or win) on a team to win the game.

• Favorites show a negative price (e.g., -140).
• Underdogs show a positive price (e.g., +120).
• The market is two-way: Favorite or Underdog.

Example (American odds):

• NY Knicks Moneyline -140
• LA Lakers Moneyline +120

• -140 favorite: Risk $140 to profit $100 (total return $240).
• +120 underdog: Risk $100 to profit $120 (total return $220).

Reading Odds in Other Formats

Decimal Odds

Some books use decimal prices.

• Knicks 1.71, Lakers 2.20
• Return = stake × decimal
  • $20 on Knicks → 20 × 1.71 = $34.20 return
  • $20 on Lakers → 20 × 2.20 = $44.00 return

A decimal of 2.00 = even money (+100). Lower than 2.00 = favorite; higher than 2.00 = underdog.

Fractional Odds

Common in the U.K.

• Knicks 71/100, Lakers 6/5
• Return = stake × (numerator ÷ denominator)
  • $10 at 71/100 → $17.10 return ($7.10 profit + $10 stake)
  • $10 at 6/5 → $22.00 return ($12 profit + $10 stake)
    

Why Bet Moneylines?

• No spread math. You only need your team to win.
• Backdoor-cover protection. Favorites that stop pressing late can still win the game even if they don’t cover a big spread.
• Underdog upside. Plus-money returns can compound quickly when you pick good spots.

Example: A team favored by -12.5 may rest starters late and win by 6. Spread loses, ML wins.

Common Moneyline Mistakes to Avoid

• Chasing big favorites. Habitually laying -250 to -500 erodes bankroll on upsets.
• Betting the number, not the game. Don’t take underdogs just for a price—find real edges.
• Ignoring injuries/lineups. Late scratches and minutes limits move win probability.
• No plan for bankroll. Use unit sizes (e.g., 0.5u–1u standard; avoid tilt).
• Impulse bets near tip. If news flips the matchup, reassess instead of forcing action.
• Not tracking results. Logging bets reveals which spots you read best (home dogs, back-to-backs, etc.).

Moneyline Tips & Strategies (2025–26)

1. Avoid huge chalk (e.g., worse than -250) unless parlaying small or your edge is verified. One upset wipes out several wins.
2. Shop prices. If one book posts +175 and another +150, that 25-cent gap materially boosts ROI over a season.
3. Monitor injury news & starting lineups. Star returns, minutes caps, and rest days swing ML edges. Check again within 60–30 minutes of tip.
4. Schedule spots matter. Back-to-backs, 3-in-4s, travel, and altitude can depress late-game performance—often better expressed in ML than spread.
5. Matchup + form, not just form. A hot team that profiles poorly against a switch-heavy defense may be overpriced.
6. Market timing.
   • Like the favorite? Often better early before public money piles on.
   • Like the dog? Waiting can bring a better plus price (but be ready to pounce if news breaks your way).
7. Ref & whistle style (advanced). Some crews call tighter games (more free throws), which can help physical home favorites; treat this as a tiebreaker, not a sole trigger.
8. Correlate with totals context. In low-total games (projected close/low variance), underdogs gain relative ML attractiveness; in high-total games, chaos can reward live ML entries.
9. Use live ML. If your pre-game dog starts cold but the process looks right (shot quality, foul trouble on favorite), a better live price can improve EV.
10. Parlay sparingly. ML round-robins can smooth variance, but keep legs few and correlated logically (e.g., home favorite ML + opponent team total under).
    

Bottom line: Moneylines are the cleanest way to start with NBA betting. Price shop, respect news, target favorable schedule spots, and pass on overpriced chalk. Over a season, disciplined selection and line shopping are your biggest edge.